Largest global nutrition study predicts most 2030 goals unmet as child obesity rises

A study claiming to reveal the most comprehensive assessment of the 2012 global nutrition targets (GNT) says that countries will only meet some goals by 2030. Over 700 multinational researchers noted progress in child wasting and a status quo in reducing anemia, next to increases in child obesity.

GNTs are tied to low birthweight, exclusive breastfeeding, child growth and anemia among females of reproductive age. They were set by the World Health Assembly with a 2025 deadline, which WHO extended to 2030 to eliminate hunger, a key part of its Sustainable Development Goal.

The study in The Lancet saw no comprehensive GNT reports between 2012 and 2021, so they analyzed trends, levels and progress within this period while also projecting 2050 trends across 204 countries and territories.

Findings reveal that no country met the target for low birthweight or anemia in females of reproductive age in 2021. Also, child obesity prevalence has increased in 201 countries since 2012, while anemia prevalence decreased in 26 countries.

Researchers saw rapid decreases in child stunting and wasting in Sub-Saharan Africa, a trend also seen in most low-income and middle-income countries.

They predict that by 2030, 94 countries will meet one of six targets, 21 will meet two targets and 89 will not meet any targets.

The study, funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, underlines that continued investment and treatment for acute childhood illness can preserve progress. It suggests treatment development, multisectoral commitment and long-term policies are needed to address the roots of suboptimal nutrition.

Country performance

According to the study, seven countries have already met two targets in 2021, and 94 have met one. The seven include Georgia, Mongolia, South Korea, Peru, Rwanda, American Samoa and Puerto Rico.

Child obesity will rise dramatically between 2012 and 2030 and no nation will reach the anemia target by 2050.Sixteen other countries are predicted to reach two targets by the 2030 deadline, with none expected to meet three targets and 89 — mainly from western sub-Saharan Africa, southern sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia — predicted to miss all targets. 

East and Southern African alliances were recently formed to tackle malnutrition with indigenous foods. FAO predicts that by 2030, around 53% of the global population facing hunger will be in Africa.

At the same time, GNT researchers predict that the prevalence of overweight children will rise dramatically worldwide between 2012 and 2030 and that no nation will reach the anemia target by 2050. 

They stress the importance of maternal, neonatal and child health for health systems, while suboptimal nutrition is a “leading cause of death and disability.” Food insecurity in the early lives of children or their pregnant mothers increases kids’ chance of developing obesity or severe obesity in childhood and adolescence by 50%, according to other research.

Recently, a major UN coalition was formed to fund national solutions against child wasting in conflict zones.

The only target 36 countries are expected to meet by 2030 is wasting.By 2050, most nations are expected to meet the child stunting or wasting target, but few will meet the low birthweight or child overweight targets. 

The study notes GNT disease burden is disproportionately high in low-income countries, especially low birthweight and child wasting. 

South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa were seen to have the largest share of disability-adjusted life-years from low birthweight and wasting in 2021. Although stunting and wasting lowered faster than expected, the regions are predicted to miss the low birthweight targets by 2030.

Researchers suggest integrated public health strategies are necessary due to the double burden of malnutrition, which involves undernutrition, overweight and obesity. Nigeria, Cameroon, Botswana, southeastern China, Thailand and Indonesia have faced this burden since the 2000s.

Malnutrition may worsen if only one aspect is tackled. Instead, the authors recommend double-duty actions like promoting nutrient-dense, minimally processed foods. They tout their success in South Asia, which led to decreases in stunting and wasting, with Nepal showing progress. South Asia is also likely to continue having the highest burden of low birthweight until 2030.

The analysis found that in 2021, the two biggest disease burdens in high-income super-region countries were low birthweight and anemia in females of reproductive age.

By 2030, 94 countries will meet one of six targets, 21 will meet two targets and 89 will not meet any targets.The only target 36 countries are expected to meet by 2030 is wasting. Breastfeeding is predicted to rise 46.8% by this period but still falls short of the target.

Flawed benchmarks?

Although GNTs are “flawed benchmarks,” they are still “valuable.” No country has met the low birthweight target in 2021, and it is not predicted to be successful by 2030.

For example, researchers say the low birthweight target does not distinguish between preterm and small-for-gestational-age births, resulting in misdirected interventions. 

Also, the exclusive breastfeeding target of 70% is “nearly impossible to achieve for countries in which exclusive breastfeeding rates in 2012 were less than 30%.”

The study reveals that demographic changes impact a country’s ability to meet the stunting count target, which conflates improvements in child health with demographic shifts. 

Researchers suggest future nutrition targets should focus on school-aged and adolescent children, as they are more closely associated with high adult body mass index.

COVID-19 has impacted GNT, but the authors call for further research to determine the pandemic’s exact consequences on the targets.